My Poll, Your Poll, Pick a Poll

We came into work today at Tea512 and were encouraged that the latest Zogby poll has the presidential race McCain 46 and Obama 44. We support McCain but as political fun, a close race is best. Therefore, when announcing this good news another member of the team said they heard this morning the CBS News – New York Times poll had Obama ahead 47-42. Consequently, we started checking this out, you can find a poll that says anything you want. The part that makes this useless is the sample. Most of these polls only sample 1000 people. The other thing is they sample likely voters and registered voters. For this reason, a simple search we found the Zogby results asked 4,752 likely voters. The CBS News – New York Times poll was of 1000 registered voters. Then there is a Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll this has Obama at 49% of the vote, McCain with 46%. This is a telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters. The latest Gallup Poll result was John McCain gaining ground being tied with Obama among registered voters each getting 46%. They have results from interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide. Then there is the Fox Presidential Tracking Poll they have Obama with 45% and McCain 39% they get these results from 900 likely voters. We found the Battleground Tracking Presidential Poll the only one Obama is losing, he is one point behind McCain 48% to 47%, there results are from 1000 likely voters. Lastly there is CNN poll, where Obama is at 51%, McCain 47% they polled 697 likely voters. The problem is the sample is so small, you probably cannot get more than 1000 people to answer the question everyday. We also wonder if they call the same 1000 people everyday. It is silly to think these have any meaning and we can now see why. The last presidential election 121,068,715 people voted. When you do the math the percentage of this many people equals 0.0008259772146751536. There is no way it can ever be an indicator. So as a McCain supporter let us go with the Battleground tracking poll today. Check back tomorrow and we will see which poll we like that day. The old saying the only poll that counts is on November 4th sounds like only truth to us.


Countdown to the first presidential debate: today
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 6 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 13 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 40 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 117 days


‘CAUSE MY BABY’S GOT A LOCOMOTIVE
MY BABY’S GONE OFF THE TRACK
MY BABY’S GOT A LOCOMOTIVE
GOT TA PEEL THE BITCH OFF MY BACK
Locomotive / W. Axl Rose (1991)

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